Inventory is the highest since the pandemic, prices are holding flat across Texas, and mortgage rates hover in the mid-6s. Buyers in San Antonio and Austin have more leverage this fall, while sellers who price correctly are still closing deals.
Quick Takeaways
- Sales momentum: Closed sales rose 3.3% year over year in July; pending sales up 10.4%.
- Inventory: 5.7 months statewide. Austin at 4.8 months; San Antonio trending higher than 2024.
- Prices: Texas median $340,000; Austin ~$468,000; San Antonio ~$310,000. U.S. median: $422,600.
- Rates: Mortgage rates mid-6%.
Months of Inventory Is Rising
Texas sits at 5.7 months of supply, while Austin is at 4.8 months. Both mark a major shift from the hyper-competitive, low-inventory markets of 2021–2022.
How Texas Compares Nationally on Prices
With a $340,000 median price, Texas homes remain far more affordable than the national median of $422,600. Austin continues to outpace the state average, while San Antonio stays closer to statewide levels.
Historical Perspective
Pre-pandemic, San Antonio and Austin averaged about 3 months of supply. Today’s 4.8 months in Austin and 5.7 months statewide are the highest since 2019, signaling a more balanced market. Compared to 2022’s frenzy of multiple offers and cash deals, Q4 2025 is calmer, giving buyers room to negotiate.
Metro Notes
- Austin: Balanced, but prices remain high relative to the state.
- San Antonio: Marketing times are longer, but steady demand continues, especially at the entry level.
FAQs Homeowners Ask
Q: Will prices drop in San Antonio in 2025?
A: Not significantly. Expect stability with more negotiation room.
Q: Is Austin still affordable?
A: Compared to statewide averages, no — but buyers have far more leverage now than in 2021–2023.
Q: Should I buy now or wait?
A: With seller concessions and rate buydowns on the table, many buyers may save more by acting now.
Buyer & Seller Strategies
- Buyers: Target listings on market 60+ days. Negotiate seller-paid costs or rate buydowns.
- Sellers: Price based on the past 30–45 days, not spring comparables. Offer concessions before slashing list price.
Investor Takeaways
- San Antonio: Entry-level homes under $250k are expanding, good for rental yields.
- Austin: Watch submarkets with stabilized rents and growing supply for acquisition leverage.
Q4 Watchlist
- Mortgage rates trending closer to 6%.
- Price cuts — TRERC reports reductions around 4%.
- Entry-level inventory growth, especially in San Antonio.
Final Thoughts
The Texas housing market is shifting into a healthier balance as Q4 2025 unfolds. Austin remains higher-priced but more negotiable, while San Antonio offers steady affordability and growing inventory for buyers and investors. Both metros show that while prices aren’t crashing, buyers have more leverage than in recent years.
At Alamo Ad Valorem, we understand how these market dynamics tie directly into property taxes. Rising values don’t have to mean rising tax bills. Our team helps homeowners and investors navigate protests and appeals so you keep more of your money in your pocket.